SPECIAL EDITION: Why mediation failed.

The reason the NFL's owners and players couldn't reach an agreement through mediation is because of something I've been saying for some months. Without a court ruling, there was no motivation to mediate. Both sides felt there was a better remedy through the legal system. The players believed Judge Susan Nelson will rule in their favor and her ruling will hold on appeal. They would then have the hammer. The owners feel if Nelson rules against the owners, then the owners can win on appeal, and the lockout would continue. The owners would have the hammer.

It wouldn't matter if some of the greatest negotiators in the history of mankind were overseeing these talks, without proper motivation, mediation is impossible.

Thus now mediation is likely dead for similar reasons. Again, it's about motivation. The players want to wait and see what Nelson decides. If Nelson rules in their favor, no need to mediate. They have the hammer. If that ruling holds up on appeal that hammer becomes even more weighty. That's not mediation. That's a victory.

If Nelson rules for the owners, they have the hammer. If Nelson's ruling in their favor held up on appeal, they have the win. All the owners would then have to do is wait out the players until they ran out of money. The owners wouldn't mediate until players started going broke because they'd have the major advantage and trust me, the owners would use it. They'd want the players to suffer because then the owners could eventually get a better deal for themselves.

That's why this was written . It's not about being negative. It's about being realistic.

The good news is Nelson's ruling -- which could come as early as Friday -- will start us down the road of ending this chaos. Start us. Doesn't end the conflict but it gives us a waypoint. That would be some good news, right?

LOCKOUT RULING? Both owners and players expect one to come soon from Judge Susan Nelson maybe by the end of the week. It appears we are indeed getting closer to a ruling. Owners and players are bracing themselves, I can tell you that. Meanwhile both sides continue mediation. It was reported by the NFL Network there was progress made. It's possible that going from the depths of bitter, uncooperative, nasty, ugly, hatred to just bitter, ugly hatred can be classfied as progress. But this will happen before mediation solves this problem.

SEE WHAT I MEAN ABOUT THE BITTERNESS?

THE Lions: Are on Monday Night Football. Oh my .

Cam Newton: People close to Newton tell me he still believes he is being held to much harsher standard than other top quarterback prospects. Can't say I disagree.

NORV TURNER: Is 100 percent correct .

NEW ENGLAND: Years from now when we look back at this draft, he will be viewed as one of the top three players from it , and he's going to be a Patriot.

See you Thursday.

THE MORNING SHOUTOUT: MEDIATION EDITION-- Small pieces of news are leaking out of the supposed gag-ordered, federal judge supervised secound round of mediation that began in earnest on Thursday in Minnesota. Here they are.

TENSE: Much of the first meeting evolved around mending fences, a source with familiarity of the meeting told CBSSports.com. The source wouldn't say what exactly needed to be mended. I don't think the session needed peacekeepers but "tense" was the word used in describing them.

NO PROGRESS: Not a shock here. It's been one day .

MANDATE: No one revealed a position or stance. In other words, after the first day, no one showed their hand.

HOPEFUL OR MAYBE NOT: I still think there is a 30 to 40 percent chance mediation will work. The fact this is now in federal hands makes this mediation with teeth which wasn't the case in the first mediation go-round. But people I speak with are putting the chances of success at much lower, even zero. The reason why is both sides think the courts favor them. The players believe the current judge will rule in their favor and the owners believe if they appeal a loss the more conservative appeals court will rule for the owners.

SO HERE WE ARE: Waiting. Mediation will likely last a week to 10 days. We wait. And wait some more .

See you Monday.